Baseball Run Differential

Here's something for you sports nerds (like me) out there, point differential analysis. Almost all team sports contests boil down to a series of opportunites to either score points or prevent your opponent from scoring points. You can do all the obscure analysis of varoius statistics you want to (and I've done them), but at the end of the day the team that scored more points than their opponent wins, so the points scored/points allowed ratio is a clear indicator of team performance. I then compare points the scored/points allowed ratio to the won lost ratio to see if teams are underperforming or overperforming

I performed that analysis this morning and came up with the following observations:

The team most underperforming their runs scored/runs against ratio in the American League is the New York Yankees, who have RS/RA ratio of .604 as compared to their current .522 won/lost ratio. Unfortunately for them, the Red Sox .624 RS/RA ratio is close to their .647 won/lost ratio, so the Yank's are not likely to overtake the Red Sox for first place (and I think that jack Reyes hit off of Clemens the other night is still going). The team in the National league most underperforming their RS/RA ration is the Chicago Cubs, who have a RS/RS ratio of .535 as compared to their .456 won/lost ratio. The Brewers RS/RA ratio is .518 as compared to their won lost ratio fo .551 so I look for the Cubs to eventually overtake the Brewers for 1st place in the division.

The teams most overperforming in each league are Tampa Bay with a RS/RA ratio of .383, and thus should end up in last place in the American League East. In the National League the team most overperforming is the St. Louis Cardinals, who have a RS/RA ratio of .390 and also should be in last place by year end.

Per the RS/RA ratios I predict the division winners to be the Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, and Dodgers.