Naturally, the experts are confounded.
The U.S. economy grew at a slightly stronger pace than forecast as 2008 began, helped by inventory-building that tempered a steadily deteriorating housing sector and less vigorous consumer spending.A depressed Chucky Schumer was unavailable for comment.
The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that gross domestic product or GDP expanded at a 0.6 percent annual rate in the first quarter, matching the fourth quarter's advance and handily topping a forecast for 0.2 percent growth in an advance poll of economists by Reuters.
GDP is the broadest measure of total economic activity within U.S. borders and, despite a better-than-expected first-quarter performance, details of the report reflect widespread weakening that many analysts fear will lead to a recession.
The GDP figures are an initial measure of first-quarter performance and will be revised twice in coming months.
The report was issued just before Federal Reserve policy-makers began a second day of deliberations that is expected to result in a decision to trim official interest rates another quarter percentage point to try to keep expansion going.
Consumer spending that fuels two-thirds of economic activity through consumption of goods and services, grew at the weakest rate since the second quarter of 2001, when the economy was last in recession. It rose at a 1 percent rate after growing 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter.Oh, so we're not in a recession?
The AP, meanwhile, is sure we'll be in a recession by the second quarter.
Many analysts were predicting that the gross domestic product (GDP) would weaken a bit more — to a pace of just 0.5 percent — in the first quarter. Earlier this year, some economists thought the economy would actually lurch into reverse during the opening quarter. Now, they say they believe that will likely happen during the current April-to-June period.
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