IBD/TIPP Poll: McCain Surges Within 2.1%, Virginia Now Dead Heat

Considering the IBD/TIPP poll was the most accurate in 2004 (within 0.4%), this at least is some positive news for John McCain with the numbers the closest since October 23.

The race tightened again Sunday as independents who'd been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up. McCain also pulled even in the Midwest, moved back into the lead with men, padded his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first time by high school graduates.

Consider it's now Obama 46.7 to 44.6%, with a MoE of 3.4. Note also there are still 8.7% undecided.

Most of the other polls have it anywhere from five to nine points for Obama with a 6.3% average margin.

Oh, and although all the "experts" have declared the race over, has anyone noticed Virginia is now a dead heat?

Virginia will be among the first states to report results Tuesday night, and should it vote Democratic for the first time in a presidential race since 1964 - as many polls suggest - Barack Obama probably will win the White House. But should McCain hold the state, the result could portend a McCain comeback nationally.

A new poll commissioned by The Virginian-Pilot concludes the state remains up for grabs. The survey of 625 likely voters found 47 percent supported Obama, 44 percent preferred McCain and a crucial 9 percent were undecided. Because the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, the race is technically a dead heat.

The telephone survey was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. on Wednesday and Thursday.

Update: Good roundups at Hot Air and Gateway Pundit.