Oh My: McCain in Dead Heat in Arizona Primary

He's in serious danger of losing in the GOP primary next year against a man who's not even running.

Senator John McCain’s future in the U.S. Senate may be a little less assured than previously thought.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely 2010 Republican Primary voters in Arizona finds the longtime incumbent in a virtual tie with potential challenger J.D. Hayworth. McCain earns 45% of the vote, while Hayworth picks up 43%.

RINOs are an endangered species in Arizona, apparently.

Hayworth, a conservative former U.S. congressman who now is a popular radio talk show host in Phoenix, is reportedly interested in the race but has not formally declared for it. He captures 59% of the male GOP vote, while McCain wins 58% of female voters.

Younger GOP voters like Hayworth more than their elders. McCain has a solid lead among the relatively small number of moderate and liberal Republicans in the state while Hayworth picks up a plurality (48%) of conservatives.

Rather than viewing this as a trend toward more conservatism, expect the media to declare this a "civil war" in the GOP.

In other news from Rasmussen, Barack Obama is still mired at a -14 approval index. It's no longer a statistical anomaly.