Sunday, January 03, 2010

Democrats Getting Nervous in Massachusetts?

A good roundup here. Seems the national Democrats figure this race to assume Ted Kennedy's seat was to be a cakewalk.

Uh, maybe not.
It is clearly to Scott Brown's advantage and to the national GOP's advantage to make this race as close as possible. A victory would obviously be a huge boost for the political fortunes of the right. Brown would provide the crucial 41st Republican vote in the Senate, which could put the brakes on the current version of Obamacare and force Democrats to work in a bipartisan fashion for major legislation. His victory could be the harbinger of significant Republican wins in the 2010 Congressional races.

But even a narrow loss would provide both Brown and the GOP with many benefits. It would certainly make Brown, already a state senator, a viable candidate for other offices in Massachusetts. A close loss might also send a shockwave of worry though the national Democratic party. If, in Peretz's phrasing, a "run-of-the-mill Democrat" can't win Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in a walk, that could spell Trouble (with a capital "T") for Democrats. The closest a Republican has come to a Democrat in a Massachusetts Senate race within the past 30+ years was 8 points (the popular William Weld, governor at the time, versus John Kerry in 1996). A Republican loss in the single digits could be read as a significant blow indeed.
Much more at the link.

Jim Geraghty isn't overly optimistic. Still, if Brown makes this a nailbiter Democrats should be in full panic. If Brown wins, like Geraghty says, it'll be a 10.0 on the Richter scale. Maybe the national GOP will wake up and realize the possibilities here. Just imagine: After dedicating ObamaCare to The Swimmer, the man who might take his seat could put a stop to it.

Meanwhile, John McCain adds his endorsement.

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