Experts Who Are Always Wrong Predict Seven Hurricanes in 2008

As we noted last month, the experts were way off base for 2007, so who knows whether any forecast for 2008 will be accurate.

We can only wait and find out.

The noted Colorado State University hurricane research team predicted on Friday that 13 tropical storms will develop in the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season, of which seven would strengthen into hurricanes.

The team formed by forecasting pioneer William Gray, whose long-range forecasts have been wrong for the past three years, said that would make 2008 a "somewhat above-average" hurricane season. The long-term average is for 10 tropical storms and six hurricanes during the six-month season starting June 1.

Gray's team, now led by his protege Philip Klotzbach, said three of the hurricanes next year would be the most dangerous Category 3 or above storms, with winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km per hour).

The Colorado State University hurricane experts, whose forecasts are closely followed by energy and commodity markets as well as disaster relief professionals, had predicted there would be 17 tropical storms in the 2007 season that ended on Nov. 30.

In the end, the season saw 14 Atlantic tropical storms, of which six strengthened into hurricanes.

Is it just me or shouldn't you be classified as something less than an expert when you're wrong three years running?