Super Bowl XLII

Having rolled through the NFL playoffs at 9-1 against the spread, we've now arrived at the ultimate game, the Super Bowl, and this could well be the most watched NFL game in history.

The New York Giants and New England Patriots drew a huge audience for their December 29 matchup at Giants Stadium, and with possible history in the making, this could well be the most anticipated NFL game ever.

These teams took wildly divergent roads getting to this point. New England was highly regarded entering the season after swiping both Randy Moss and Wes Welker for draft picks and took off from their first game. They stumbled a bit later in the season as some teams figured out ways to slow them down some, notably Philadelphia and Baltimore.

Still, they rolled through unbeaten and now stand as the first team to enter the Super Bowl at 18-0. They'll regard their season as a failure if they come up short here.

The Giants, meanwhile, staggered early, giving up 80 points as they went 0-2, then faced a 17-3 halftime hole in Week 3 at Washington. I honestly thought they were the worst team in the league at that juncture, but they rallied to go ahead and had a magnificent goal-line stand to win that game, which propelled them to a six-game win streak.

Unlike some previous Giants teams, they came together this year and became a force away from home, and now have won an NFL record 10 straight road games, including wins at Tampa, Dallas and Green Bay during their remarkable playoff run.

So we now have a team looking to cement its mark as the best ever against an underdog looking to pull off one of the greatest ever upsets, and if the Giants were to accomplish that, it would probably rank as the greatest sports moment in team and New York sports history.

Arguably, this is the most important game ever for either franchise.

Giants +12 Patriots: First of all, the trends here have been the Giants covering outright their last five games while the Patriots have failed to cover most of the latter half of the season, including both playoff games. OK, so some will argue they were no longer going full tilt and were never really in danger of losing, although they did face a 12-point hole midway in the third quarter of the Week 17 game.

In that game, the Giants attacked through the air from the first series, and Eli Manning had four touchdowns and has really blossomed since then. His one interception cost dearly, but he hasn't had a pick since. But I can't see the Giants wanting to get into another shootout, as the Patriots will be happy to score 40 any time.

So the Giants need to better establish the ground game and chew clock as they did in Green Bay. Brandon Jacobs struggled some against the Patriots in Week 17, but remember rookie flash Ahmad Bradshaw missed that game, and he's provided a different dimension to Jacobs with his quick breakaway ability. He can be a huge factor if given a little room, as the Patriots linebackers, while solid veterans, aren't exactly that fast. The Giants have rotated their two backs by quarter usually, but look for more Bradshaw early.

There's no question Bill Belichick will throw things at Manning he's not accustomed to, and you can be sure whichever corner plays Plaxico Burress, be it Ellis Hobbs or Asante Samuel, will be getting help shadowing the man who demolished Green Bay's Pro Bowl corner Al Harris in the NFC title game. So this should leave Amani Toomer and Steve Smith in single coverage, and both have come up huge in the playoffs. It would be nice also if we had a Sinorice Moss sighting and he actually made a play or two.

The Giants have also received superb special teams play of late (Domenik Hixon returned a punt against the Patriots in their last meeting) and now have a kicker who came up huge two weeks ago in Lawrence Tynes.

So I expect the Giants to be able to score in the mid-20s. Which brings us to the dilemma. How on earth do you keep New England to that or less?

New York's first-year defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, now a sexy head coaching prospect, is a quick study. He's made second-half adjustments in all three playoff games, virtually shutting down the opponents, limiting Dallas to three second-half points and the Packers to a paltry 90 yards. They're playing shutdown run defense, leaving teams knowing they have to pass, and this has allowed the Giants front four to get plenty of pressure, forcing throws early, and getting key interceptions from R.W. McQuarters and Corey Webster, both of whom have emerged.

Now the Patriots from the outset will probably be going four and five wide often, so they'll need Webster or Sam Madison to be jamming Randy Moss at the line and hope they get enough safety help should Moss get by. Forget putting a linebacker on Welker. He's going to get his balls, but the safeties need to be on him as soon as he sees the ball. This still leaves Donte Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney, not to mention tight end Ben Watson.

One other key on defense is they better find a way to stop Kevin Faulk on third and long situations, as he absolutely killed them the first time they met.

So the Patriots will get their points, but what needs to happen for the Giants to have a shot is hits on Brady via some clever line stunts and safety blitzes from Gibril Wilson and Aaron Ross. Expect Osi Umenyiora and Michael Strahan to get plenty of double-teams, which may free up rising third-year man Justin Tuck to cause problems.

If they can't touch Brady and the Patriots get a couple of quick scores early, it could be lights out.

I think they do get to him and force a key turnover or two. San Diego picked Brady off three times and he had one of his lousier performances in some time. Spagnuolo may well be able to disguise coverages well enough in nickel and dime packages, so don't be shocked to see Brady get picked off.

So as someone who believes in trends and history repeating itself, all you have to do, Giants fans, is harken back to January 1991. The Giants won a heart-stopping NFC Championship on a last-second field goal by Matt Bahr to stun the 49ers. It happened 17 years to the day of Tynes' kick, and both players, ironically, wore No. 9. They faced the reverse situation a week later against the Bills, and we all know what happened with Scott Norwood.

Which brings us to Patriots kicker Steven Gostkowski. He hasn't faced a pressure kick all year, and can he do it in the clutch?

Adam Vinatieri was money in three Super Bowl wins for New England.

They will now rue the day they let him walk. Giants 26-24.

UPDATE: This was originally posted Thursday night, but I'm bumping this to the top of the page until Saturday and will be adding predictions from other blogs and football prognosticators as they roll in.

So far we've got another Jersey guy, Lawhawk, also picking the Giants in a nailbiter.

Steveegg at the Wisconsin Sports Bar, while still disconsolate over the Packers, has a look at some betting possibilities.

Larwyn reminded me to mention the inspirational Army Lt. Col. Greg Gadson, who was previously noted here by Just a Grunt.