Dingy Harry Getting Crushed in New Poll

Looks like his phony Tea Party candidate isn't quite helping split the vote. What a shame. Well, we've got a little more than six months to slap this clown around, so savor every moment of it.

U.S. Sen. Harry Reid must pick up far more support from crossover Republicans and independents to win re-election, according to a new poll that shows him losing to the GOP front-runner in a full-ballot election with eight contenders and a "none of these candidates" option.

The survey of Nevada voters commissioned by the Review-Journal shows Reid getting 37 percent of the vote compared with 47 percent for Republican Sue Lowden, who would win if the election were today, while the slate of third-party and nonpartisan candidates would get slim to no backing.

The latest Mason-Dixon poll for the first time measured Reid's and Lowden's support in a full general election test instead of in a head-to-head or three-way matchup to see how much of the vote the record number of Senate candidates on the Nov. 2 ballot would siphon off from the Democratic incumbent and the top GOP challenger, pollster Brad Coker said.

"The bottom line is that adding all these minor candidates won't really bleed support away exclusively from the Republican," Coker said. "They're not really bleeding much support from either candidate, Reid or Lowden, and if they do siphon off votes, it'll probably be about half and half."

According to the poll, the four nonpartisan candidates wouldn't pick up any measurable vote. Tim Fasano of the Independent American Party and "none of these candidates" would each get 3 percent, Scott Ashjian of the Tea Party of Nevada would get 2 percent, and 8 percent of voters are undecided.

Eight or nine out of 10 voters don't even know the names of the four nonpartisan contenders, according to the survey, which also found less than half of Nevadans recognized Fasano and Ashjian, a former Republican who isn't supported by local and national members of the Tea Party movement.

Ken Fernandez, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, said voters rarely choose third-party and nonpartisan candidates in close races in which the stakes are high -- as in the nationally watched Reid race -- because "people don't want to throw away their vote."

On the upside, Reid will help boost the Nevada economy by wasting upwards of $25 million making stuff up about his Republican opponent.

He plans to raise a record $25 million to defend his seat, according to his campaign.

With that much money, Reid can tear apart his opponent's record and make voters feel the Republican isn't up to the Senate job, said Nathan Gonzales of the Rothenberg Political Report.

"It's up to Reid to change the dynamics of this race," Gonzales said. "He's going to have to completely demonize the Republican in the race, and he's got the money to do it."

As nasty as Democrats already are, expect the most negative campaign cycle ever this fall. It'll backfire badly.