A 1994-style scenario is probably the most likely outcome at this point. Moreover, it is well within the realm of possibility - not merely a far-fetched scenario - that Democratic losses could climb into the 80 or 90-seat range. The Democrats are sailing into a perfect storm of factors influencing a midterm election, and if the situation declines for them in the ensuing months, I wouldn't be shocked to see Democratic losses eclipse 100 seats.Of course we shouldn't become too giddy as six months can make a huge difference, although the Democrats clearly haven't gotten the message yet and the way they're going around trying to ambush the tea parties (today could get ugly) signals they have no intention of moderating themselves.
Meanwhile, we see this poll today from the Telegraph foreshadowing huge losses for Labour in the UK.
A high turnout is likely to favour the Conservatives who need to win 117 seats from other parties to secure an overall majority. The party needs a national swing of almost seven per cent to achieve this.
As part of the unique poll for the Telegraph, Crosby/Textor told voters who their candidates are before asking them who they would vote for.
This gives a more accurate result because in marginal seats voters are more likely to be loyal to individual MPs than parties.
The poll found that the Tories would pick up 74 of the 100 seats from Labour. However, they would not pick up any of the seats held by Liberal Democrats.
When asked who do you think is winning the campaign so far, 52 per cent said the Tories, only 15 per cent Labour and just six the Lib Dems.
40 per cent of voters said that the Conservatives deserve to win the election. Only 25 per cent said Labour, and 15 per cent Lib Dem.
There was also an overwhelming preference for a hung parliament over a fourth Labour term with 55 per cent opting for that uncertain outcome over another five years of Gordon Brown.
There is further good news for Mr Cameron. In those seats when asked how would be more trusted to run the economy the Tories came out ahead of Labour, with 42 per cent compared to 29.
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