More Fuzzy Math Fed to the Masses

This is from an article over at the USA Today paper. It is an article about service members suffering from PTSD or other mental illnesses. The article puts the number at 300,000 and they say it represents 1 in 5 soldiers. They then go on to say an equal number are suffering from some sort of traumatic brain injury making a total of over 600,000 suffering some sort of injury or illness.

Now take a step back people and think about this. Let's start with some baseline numbers. First, the average Army strength deployed to the theater of operations, meaning Afghanistan and Iraq, 144,400 and for the Marines it is 27,000. That is the average number of troops deployed, including reserves based on DoD data.

Now if you take that number times five it equals 722,000 for the Army and 135,000 for the Marines for a grand total of 857,000 troops that have been deployed. That is assuming that each time a rotation occurred it would be fresh soldiers who had never been deployed which we know isn't true. So according to the number cited in the article that reaches almost 35% of all troops, yet the survey puts it at 18.5% for PTSD and 19% for head trauma which together equals 37.5%.

The total strength of the Army right now is around 440,000. So according to this survey three-quarters of those serving in the Army have some sort of PTSD or brain injury?

Let's look at the methodology employed here to arrive at these figures by the Rand group.

The Rand survey done from August through January, put the percentage of PTSD and depression at 18.5% and then calculated about 300,000 were suffering those problems at that time because Pentagon data shows over 1.6 million military personnel have deployed to the conflicts since the war in Afghanistan began in 2001.

Now look at that. They claim 600K suffer some sort of injury or illness and 1.6M have been deployed. Does that add up to almost 60% in anybody else;s book?

I didn't include Navy and Air Force in my numbers deliberately because for the most part they are not involved in the day to day operations which would expose them to brain injuries or some of the more horrific scenes witnessed by the ground forces.
Let me make this clear right now, I am not trying to diminish the issue of PTSD or TBI (Traumatic Brain Injury), I just want it to be cast in the proper light. There is no denying that anybody that goes to war is going to experience PTSD in some form, shape, or fashion just like first responders often experience it. You can not go into that environment and not come out affected, but with that being said, to inflate the numbers like this to score some sort points is despicable.

Now regarding my beef with the Rand report, using the figure of 1.6 military personnel who have been deployed is to ignore those have done multiple tours and those who were not exposed to dangerous situations.

Maybe I am wrong and the number is that high, but I tend to believe that the number is closer to about 100 - 150,000, or a quarter of the number cited by Rand.

The Department of Veterans Affairs said this month that its records show about 120,000 who served in the two wars and are no longer in the military have been diagnosed with mental health problems. Of those, approximately 60,000 are suffering from PTSD, the VA said.

The VA handles folks who have separated, not active duty, and they show 60,000 suffering PTSD.

Don't make the service members out to be victims. Some who suffer PTSD manage to get over it, and in fact I would say the large majority of them do. Traumatic Brain Injury, due to the nature of the weapons being employed is a greater concern and something that can only be handled medically.

There is no need to go around and hype numbers which just feed on the ignorance of the 99% of people in this country who have never served and therefore don't have a clue about the stresses placed on the military. I watch the folks on reality shows who after two weeks away from their family are reduced to quivering bowls of jello and I can't help but wonder how they would hold up to year long deployments. Maybe contestants on Survivor need to be examined for PTSD?

I just want to make it clear to those who are going to come over here and read this and try to say what an uncaring, despicable person I am because I dare to question a study on this issue, I understand that these mental and medical issues are real, I am not trying to deny that they need to be addressed with just as much vigor as we use against our physical enemies, but I don't want to fall into the trap of viewing each and every person who wears the uniform as being a victim.

I wonder if they did a similar survey on football players?