Jobless Rate Falls; AP, Economists Baffled

I really should go into the gambling business. Find out what the experts are predicting at the start of the month and bet against it every time.

OK, I'm not saying it's time to pop champagne corks, but do you get the feeling we're not quite in a Depression yet?

Employers cut far fewer jobs in April than in recent months and the unemployment rate dropped to 5 percent, a better-than-expected showing that nonetheless still revealed strains in the nation's crucial labor market.

For the fourth month in a row, the economy lost jobs, the Labor Department reported Friday. But in April the losses totaled 20,000, an improvement from the 81,000 reductions in payrolls logged in March. Job losses for both February and March turned out to be a bit deeper than previously reported.

The latest snapshot of the nationwide employment conditions _ while clearly still weak _ was better than many economists were anticipating. They were bracing for job cuts of 75,000 and for the unemployment rate to climb to 5.2 percent.

The unemployment rate, derived from a different statistical survey than the payroll figures, fell to 5 percent from 5.1 percent in March. That survey showed more people finding employment than those who didn't.

The rest of the story is typical gloom and doom, naturally, with yet another prediction.

Fed officials and the Bush administration are hoping that the Fed's aggressive rate cuts since September plus the government's $168 billion stimulus package _ including tax rebates that started hitting bank accounts this week _ will lift the country out of its slump in the second half of this year.

Even if that happens, economists predict the unemployment rate will climb higher, hitting 6 percent early next year.

I say they may be right, and predict that will go higher if a Democrat is elected to the White House in November.

Update: Wall Street rallies after the news.

Chuckie "Hooverville" Schumer was unavailable for comment.

Instapundit links. Thanks!