I decided to go crunch some numbers--well because I could--to try and find some of rhyme or reason to this years political season. I like a universe that well ordered and works within a specific set of rules, and this year has been anything but that. I think the term "conventional wisdom" can now be thrown out the window.
When compiling some data in regards to the Republican primaries I began to notice a disturbing pattern. In the early portion of the primaries it was a slugfest with the only candidate getting double digit wins over his opponents being Romney. The percentages shown below show how far the margin of victory was between 1st and 2nd place.
I cannot explain the West Virginia vote. McCain got double digit margins of victory on the first Super Tuesday only in strongly Democrat states, like New York and New "The fix is in" Jersey. Romney was still enjoying decent double digit wins, hell the Maverick only won his home state of Arizona by a 13% margin over Romney.
Then people started dropping out. It was not until the March 4 primary in Vermont that McCain was able to get 58% of the vote, when for all intents and purposes he was basically running unopposed! All other primaries that day he was still below 50%.
After that he was able to get up into the 60% group, but still a Republican candidate running unopposed can only get 60 - 70% of his parties vote?
These are the numbers that should be causing sleepless nights for the McCain campaign. I think it is too late to try and make nice with conservatives. They have been sold out for the last time. But if you can only get 60 - 70% of your parties vote on a one person ticket how the hell are you going to win a general election? You had better hope that difference is made up with PUMA (Party Unity My Ass) voters coming over from the Dems, or Mav, you are going to crash and burn and their ain't no ejection seat this time.
STATE DATE OF PRIMARY WINNER MARGIN
IA 1/3/2008 HUCKABEE 9%
WY 1/5/2008 ROMNEY 41%
NH 1/8/2008 MCCAIN 6%
MI 1/15/2008 ROMNEY 9%
NV 1/19/2008 ROMNEY 37%
SC 1/19/2008 MCCAIN 4%
FL 1/29/2008 MCCAIN 5%
ME 2/1/2008 ROMNEY 30%
UT 2/5/2008 ROMNEY 84%
WV 2/5/2008 MCCAIN 66%
AR 2/5/2008 HUCKABEE 40%
CO 2/5/2008 ROMNEY 40%
NJ 2/5/2008 MCCAIN 27%
NY 2/5/2008 MCCAIN 24%
AK 2/5/2008 ROMNEY 23%
IL 2/5/2008 MCCAIN 19%
MN 2/5/2008 ROMNEY 19%
MT 2/5/2008 ROMNEY 14%
DE 2/5/2008 MCCAIN 13%
ND 2/5/2008 ROMNEY 13%
AZ 2/5/2008 MCCAIN 13%
MA 2/5/2008 ROMNEY 10%
CT 2/5/2008 MCCAIN 9%
CA 2/5/2008 MCCAIN 7%
AL 2/5/2008 HUCKABEE 3%
GA 2/5/2008 HUCKABEE 3%
TN 2/5/2008 HUCKABEE 3%
OK 2/5/2008 MCCAIN 3%
MO 2/5/2008 MCCAIN 2%
KS 2/9/2008 HUCKABEE 26%
LA 2/9/2008 HUCKABEE 2%
MD 2/12/2008 MCCAIN 26%
VA 2/12/2008 MCCAIN 10%
WA 2/19/2008 MCCAIN 27%
WI 2/19/2008 MCCAIN 18%
VT 3/4/2008 MCCAIN 58%
RI 3/4/2008 MCCAIN 43%
OH 3/4/2008 MCCAIN 29%
TX 3/4/2008 MCCAIN 14%
MS 3/11/2008 MCCAIN 66%
PA 4/22/2008 MCCAIN 57%
IN 5/6/2008 MCCAIN 67%
NC 5/6/2008 MCCAIN 61%
NE 5/13/2008
HI 5/18/2008
OR 5/20/2008 MCCAIN 69%
KY 5/20/2008 MCCAIN 64%
ID 5/27/2008 MCCAIN 46%
NM 6/3/2008 MCCAIN 71%
SD 6/3/2008 MCCAIN 54%
BTW: It would be nice to actually be able to import a spreadsheet into Blogger. Think you geeks can work on that?
Trust me, that data looks really good in a spreadsheet
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