The Massive Voter Turnout That Wasn't

After all the hype about millions of "new voters" turning out for the elction, it never materialized.

A new report from American University’s Center for the Study of the American Electorate concludes that voter turnout in Tuesday’s election was the same in percentage terms as it was four years ago — or at most has risen by less than 1 percent.

The report released Thursday estimates that between 126.5 and 128.5 million Americans cast ballots in the presidential election earlier this week. Those figures represent 60.7 percent or, at most, 61.7 percent of those eligible to vote in the country.

“A downturn in the number and percentage of Republican voters going to the polls seemed to be the primary explanation for the lower than predicted turnout,” the report said. Compared to 2004, Republican turnout declined by 1.3 percentage points to 28.7 percent, while Democratic turnout increased by 2.6 points from 28.7 percent in 2004 to 31.3 percent in 2008.

“Many people were fooled (including this student of politics although less so than many others) by this year’s increase in registration (more than 10 million added to the rolls), citizens’ willingness to stand for hours even in inclement weather to vote early, the likely rise in youth and African American voting, and the extensive grassroots organizing network of the Obama campaign into believing that turnout would be substantially higher than in 2004,” Curtis Gans, the center’s director, said in the report. “But we failed to realize that the registration increase was driven by Democratic and independent registration and that the long lines at the polls were mostly populated by Democrats.”

So the GOP did not get out the vote and the Democrats did. These media predictions of millions of new voters never materialized.

Amazing how wrong they always are.

There's a clear message here for the GOP: Don't let the media pick your candidate, nominate a solid conservative, and close primaries to Republicans only. It's a proven winning formula.

GOP Poll Workers Intimidated In Philadelphia; Update: Black Panthers With Nightsticks Block Entrance

By nightfall, I expect a solid 140% of voters to turn out in Philadelphia.

The media always breathlessly report allegations of voter disenfranchisement, but rarely touch stories like this.

GOP Election Board members have been tossed out of polling stations in at least half a dozen polling stations in Philadelphia because of their party status.

A Pennsylvania judge previously ruled that court-appointed poll watchers could be NOT removed from their boards by an on-site election judge, but that is exactly what is happening, according to sources on the ground.

It is the duty of election board workers to monitor and guard the integrity of the voting process.

Denying access to the minority (in this case Republican) poll watchers and inspectors is a violation of Pennsylvania state law. Those who violate the law can be punished with a misdemeanor and subjected to a fine of $1,000 and sent to prison between one month and two years.

Those on site are describing the situation as "pandemonium" and there may be video coming of the chaos.

Update: Fox is now reporting Black Panthers, once carrying a nightstick, is blocking media and poll worker access. Lovely.

Maybe those Black Panthers are auditioning for Obama's Civilian Defense Force.

The police wre forced to come and remove the thug.

Update: Here's the video.



Via Gateway Pundit.

Media Declares Race Over as McCain Creeps Within Four Points

Ten days ago Barack Obama led by eight points in the Rasmussen poll but John McCain is now within four points the past two days. So why the great urgency by media pundits to declare the race over?

Are they worried?

You bet they are.

Sure, there's 18 days to go and the RCP average is 6.6 points, but with Gallup likely voters at two points, why on earth would anyone pay off bets on Obama already? Probably because he's listening to the "experts" who've been notoriously wrong in the past.

"I don't see how this one can be turned around, frankly," said presidential historian Stephen Hess.

Uh, Mr. Hess, maybe Obama committed a fatal blunder by revealing he's a socialist.

No. Really. You're kidding me. Barack Obama actually told that Joe the Plumber guy that he wants to "spread the wealth around." What, did Obama just get done reading the Wikipedia entry on Huey "Share the Wealth" Long or something? Was he somehow channeling that left-wing populist from the Depression? Talk about playing into the most extreme stereotype of your party, that it is infested with socialists.

A while back I chatted with a University of Chicago professor who was a frequent lunch companion of Obama's. This professor said that Obama was as close to a full-out Marxist as anyone who has ever run for president of the United States. Now, I tend to quickly dismiss that kind of talk as way over the top. My working assumption is that Obama is firmly within the mainstream of Democratic politics. But if he is as free with that sort of redistributive philosophy in private as he was on the campaign trail this week, I have no doubt that U of C professor really does figure him as a radical. And after last night's debate, a few more Americans might think that way, too. McCain's best line: "Now, of all times in America, we need to cut people's taxes. We need to encourage business, create jobs, not spread the wealth around."

And by the way, I just noticed that the IBD/TIPP poll, the most accurate in 2004, has McCain down by just 3 points. If the contest is perceived by the voters as a contest between a wealth redistributor and a wealth creator, then it could be a long night come Nov. 4. This is still a center-right country, gang.

Indeed, IBD/TIPP was the most accurate pollster in 2004 and has it at three points.

Why should we listen to the liberal media, which wants nothing more than to depress turnout among Republicans?

I suspect the Obama camp realizes what a disastrous move Obama made revealing his true socialist self.

Why else would they be on such a vicious smear campaign against a guy Obama approached for a photo op? The uglier the attacks become against Joe Wurzelbacher, the more independents and blue-collar Democrats will recoil at such tactics.

The polling outfits are all using different samples, but look for them to become more realistic as we approach November 4.

Does McCain have his work cut out for him? Sure does. But declaring a winner with this much time left on the clock is a dangerous game, especially when all that supposed advantage in newly-registered voters now looks very suspicious. Speaking of suspicious, be very wary of this report. Smells like a diversion.

Just think of all those baseball fans last night who went to sleep knowing the Tampa Bay Rays were already in the World Series.

Nothing like knowing the winner before the game is over.

Election Snapshot: Obama to Win Popular Vote, McCain Electoral

Oh, man, would this be something. For eight years we've been hearing the whining about Al Gore winning the popular vote, yet losing the electoral vote to George W. Bush.

Just imagine is this scenario were to come to fruition.

Popular Vote: Barack Obama 50.52%, John McCain 48.48%

Electoral Votes: John McCain 274, Barack Obama 264

Oof. We'd never hear the end of it.

Via Instapundit.

Lame: Obama Ad Tries Portraying McCain as a Celebrity

If this is the best Team Obama can come up with, they're in trouble.

Sure, McCain was viewed as a celebrity by the left when he was useful to them (i.e., to use as a GOP proxy against Bush).

But now that Obama has been clearly defined as a celebutard (and if you missed this over the weekend, have at it), coming back and trying to pin the same status on McCain just isn't going to work.

And here we've been told how brilliant the Obama team is.

I wonder if Bob Herbert will wet his pants and see any phallic symbols in this ad?

Via Hot Air.

Running Scared: Obama Backs Off Townhall Meetings With McCain

Hmm. What happened to all that bravado and bluster from The Great Orator?

Could it be he's panicking because his poll numbers are sinking like a stone?

Perhaps it's because he becomes The Wizards of Uhhhs when he doesn't have a TelePrompter in front of him?

Whatever it is, he sure looks chicken.

Democratic candidate Barack Obama on Saturday backed away from rival John McCain's challenge for a series of joint appearances before the political conventions, agreeing only to the standard three debates in the fall.

In May, when a McCain adviser proposed a series of pre-convention appearances at town hall meetings, Obama said, "I think that's a great idea." In summer stumping on the campaign trail, McCain has often noted that Obama had not followed through and joined him in any events.

On Saturday, in a letter to the Commission on Presidential Debates, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said the short period between the last political convention and the first proposed debate made it likely that the commission-sponsored debates would be the only ones in the fall.

"We've committed to the three debates on the table," campaign spokeswoman Jen Psaki said Saturday in an interview. "It's likely they will be the three appearances by the candidates this fall."

Asked by The Associated Press if that meant Obama would not agree to any other debates, Psaki said, "We're not saying that." She said the McCain campaign had rejected Obama's proposal for two joint town hall meetings.

Lame. They can't even get their denials straight.

You know this boob doesn't want any part of McCain in a debate, since by the time they get around to him he'll have changed his position on every issue.

'What We Need Now is Campaign Events in Hospital Emergency Rooms'

I'm sure that would endear The Messiah to people who've just broken an arm or are in urgent need of medical care.

Then again, his whole campaign my soon need a trip to the doctor because it sure looks as if it's in failing health.

Snide condescension and looking down at the little people sure doesn't help, and I'm not sure his advisers and other strategists get it yet.

With just one month to go before Labour Day – the traditional beginning of the general election – and only three weeks before the Democratic convention, many Democrats fear that time is running out for Mr Obama to overcome the suspicions of this key swing vote.

“We have got to move away from these beautifully choreographed speeches which appeal to groups of voters who are unassailably in the Obama camp already,” said a non-staff adviser to Mr Obama. “What plays well with the educated liberal voter sometimes grates with the blue-collar folk, whom we need on our side if we are going to win.”
...
At this stage in the 1988 presidential race, Michael Dukakis, the Democratic candidate, had a 17 percentage point lead over George H.W. Bush, who went on to win the election. John Kerry emerged from the 2004 Democratic convention with a strong lead over George W. Bush only to lose the election as well. In 2008, conventional wisdom says Mr McCain is running a much less effective campaign than either of the Bushes.

That only reinforces disquiet about Mr Obama’s inability so far to take a decisive lead. “Even on his worst day, Bill Clinton was able to signal that he understood voters’ concerns and that he felt their pain,” said Douglas Schoen, a Democratic consultant. “Obama has no trouble with the campaign stagecraft. But this isn’t Harvard, it’s the beer hall. He has to talk in language that people understand.”
...
The Obama campaign says the remarks were taken out of context. But reports such as this can still play badly in communities that pay little attention to foreign policy and are looking for empathy with their economic situation, say analysts. “Look, Obama has pulled off a good tour of Europe and it was probably necessary,” says a Democratic consultant who backed Mr Obama against Mrs Clinton. “What we need now is campaign events in hospital emergency rooms and in unemployment offices and small town diners. These people have a vote.”

Given the McCain campaign’s barely concealed contempt for Mr Obama and Mr Obama’s occasional tendency to present his candidacy in soaring, epochal terms, many believe the pattern of negative attacks is now here to stay.

“Obama obviously thinks very highly of himself,” says Juleanna Glover, an adviser to Mr McCain.

“Not everybody shares that view.”

Maybe he won't be president the next eight to ten years after all.

Thank You, Shadowy Overlords

Diebold Accidentally Leaks Results Of 2008 Election Early

Via Hot Air.

The Roar Of A NeocoM

Communists mull other candidates
Party plots a stalemate to introduce new contenders
Unimpressed by the presidential platforms of incumbent Václav Klaus and his opponent, Jan Švejnar, the leaders of the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM) have selected a handful of their own potential candidates.

The party, which holds 29 out of the 281 electoral seats in Parliament, plans to support Švejnar in the first and second rounds of the Feb. 8 presidential elections, but only because it wants to lower Klaus’ chances of winning, KSCM Chairman Vojtech Filip told the daily Hospodárské noviny Jan. 31.

In the third round, when the votes of the upper and lower houses are combined, the party will purposely refrain from endorsing any candidate, effectively increasing the chance of a stalemate that would allow for the nomination of a new candidate who will have a better chance of beating Klaus.

“The KSCM won’t let Kaus versus Klaus enter the second and third rounds of the election,” Filip said. “It is already certain that [honorary ODS member] Klaus will win in the Senate, where the ODS has 41 seats. It is therefore our responsibility to … enable a different candidate to win in the Chamber of Deputies.”

While declining to name all of the party’s potential presidential nominees until the eve of the election, Filip released the names of four local luminaries currently under consideration.

The first, Jirí Dienstbier, is a former foreign affairs minister, political dissident and one of Klaus’ harshest critics. Another, Václav Paces, is an internationally renowned molecular genetics professor and the president of the Czech Academy of Sciences. Before officially backing Švejnar at the end of last year, the opposition Social Democratic Party (CSSD) also considered nominating both Paces and Dienstbier.

Although their names have not been the subjects of political discussions in recent months, Filip said the remaining potential candidates, Constitutional Court Justice Pavel Rychetský and nuclear physicist František Janouch, enjoy popularity among the KSCM’s leadership. Despite their co-founding of Charter 77, a Cold War-era document that criticized the human rights violations committed by the KSCM’s predecessor, the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia, Filip said KSCM voters would support Janouch or Rychetský because they “criticized the regime from a leftist point of view.”

rofl


Via The Prague Post

UPDATE: Klaus one vote shy, second election set for February 15th.

Obama the "Black Ronald Reagan"

There's nonsense, and then there this absurd story about how Republicans supposedly are defecting to Barack Obama.

The current issue of the New Yorker contains a profile of Obama, which highlights his appeal to conservatives.

For his optimism about the future, Obama has been dubbed the “black Ronald Reagan”. He frequently challenges the black community to support two-parent families and encourage school students, instead of criticising them for “acting white”.

Granted, if any Republicans were indeed intending to vote for a Democrat, Obama would likely get their votes before Mrs. Clinton.

But this is just ridiculous.

Thompson Announces Presidential Bid

Tommy Thompson, that is.

Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson is joining the Republican presidential race.

Appearing on ABC's "This Week," Thompson called himself "the reliable conservative."

Thompson also served as health and human services secretary during President Bush's first term, and claims to be the only GOP candidate who has helped assemble both a state and federal budget.

And you thought I was talking about Fred? Well, more on him from Robert Novak.

In just three weeks, Fred Thompson has improbably transformed the contest for the Republican presidential nomination. It is not merely that he has come from nowhere to double digits in national polls. He is the talk of GOP political circles, because he is filling the conservative void in the Republican field.

Republican activists have complained for months that none of the big-three contenders -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Mitt Romney -- fits the model of a conservative leader for a conservative party. The party faithful have been waiting for another Ronald Reagan. But in the past year, nobody mentioned Thompson as the messiah until he appeared March 11 on ''Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace.''

UPDATE: More on Fred Thompson at Hot Air. Check out the video.

Most Dishonest Poll Story Ever

When I first saw this headline, I figured it was a gag. Sure enough, Rasmussen actually took a poll and came up with this gem:

Obama, Clinton Lead Hagel in Election 2008 Match-Up.

Illinois Senator Barack Obama leads Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel by 16 percentage points in the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. The Election 2008 poll, part of a series looking at all potential match-ups, shows Obama attracting 50% of the vote to Hagel's 34%.

New York Senator Hillary Clinton also leads Hagel, but her eight-point advantage is not as commanding as Obama's. A Clinton-Hagel match shows the Democrat on top 48% to 40%.

I understand Hagel is a media darling since he basically has abandoned the GOP and enjoys the klieg lights and CNN interviews because he criticizes the President. But you can look at any poll of potential GOP candidates for 2008 and the guy either comes up last or is bringing up the rear with luminaries such as George Pataki. To even match him up with top-tier Democrat candidates is an insult to our intelligence.

What makes this poll even more ridiculous is the fact the most recent Rasmussen 2008 GOP poll Hagel barely registers. If they were to honestly report the results from that, the headline would read more like Giuliani, McCain, lead all Democrat challengers, which they do.

Funny also how after a couple of weeks of the leftist media reminding GOP voters how "liberal" Rudy Giuliani is, he's the runaway leader in the GOP race.

Prophet Obama Declares Candidacy

The masses swoon as the articulate candidate invokes Lincoln. Honestly, I think the guy peaked weeks ago, but anything that gets Anna Nicole Smith off my television is a welcome diversion.

Democrat Barack Obama declared himself a candidate Saturday for the White House in 2008, evoking Abraham Lincoln's ability to unite a nation and promising to lead a new generation as the country's first black president.

The first-term senator announced his candidacy from the state capital where he began his elective career just 10 years ago, and in front of the building where in another century, Lincoln served eight years in the Illinois Legislature.

My only advice is this: The Pantsuit and her crowd play rough. Good luck.

More at A Blog For All and Hot Air.

UPDATE: Undoing Obama: Inside the Coming Effort to Dismantle A Candidate.