NFL Conference Championships

We've gone 6-2 through the first two rounds of the NFL playoffs, but forecasting the conference championships has been difficult, as we have two tossup games with close spreads and enough storylines for four games. Can Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy help get the Colts over the hump and remove the 1000-pound gorilla that is Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and a savvy, battle-tested New England team?

Can the Saints, a year removed from a nomadic 3-13 season, overcome the elements in Chicago, where it will be cold and snowy at gametime? Will Rex Grossman be able to limit his errors while the Bears running game attacks a vulnerable New Orleans run defense?

Let's find out.

BEARS -2 over Saints: The spread is down to -2 for the Bears today, meaning a lot of money is going on the Saints. Dome teams are 0-9 outdoors in conference title games, and my thought here is the conditions will limit Reggie Bush's explosive potential. The Bears should be able to move the ball on the ground with Benson and Jones, minimizing Grossman's attempts and keeping the Saints offense off the field. Chicago's defense hasn't been nearly as good as early in the year, with Tommie Harris and Mike Brown gone, but should be able to dictate the pace with some hard hitting nonetheless. A field position battle, hostile crowd and maybe a another big play from Devin Hester will lead Chicago to the first Super Bowl since the 1985 season. Bears 16-13

Patriots +3 over COLTS: Last week I said the winner of the Patriots-Chargers game would likely be the eventual Super Bowl winner, and logic says New England has it all going over the Colts: recent playoff history, genius coach, smooth QB, etc. Still, their two most recent matchups have both been Indianapolis wins in Foxborough, so they know how to beat this team, and that's through the air. Something seems askew with Peyton Manning in the first two games, but he's home, due for a big game, and if the Colts get a jump on the suspect Patriots secondary right away, they could be in for a big day. The Patriots do not allow scores early, so if the Colts can strike quickly, it will be a huge confidence boost. The Indy defense seems rejuvenated since Bob Sanders came back, and they should be able to limit the Patriot ground game to some extent. Meanwhile, receivers Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell are due to come back to earth after big games last week. In the end though, it should all come down to a familiar face--Adam Vinatieri, who is money in the bank at playoff time. Colts 23-21