Saturday, January 13, 2007

NFL Divisional Playoffs

We went 4-0 against the spread in the Wildcard games, so let's see if the hot hand will continue. This is always the best weekend of the playoffs, and let's hope we get some great games.

Colts +4 over RAVENS: Indianapolis is in an unusual underdog spot, which I think helps them going into Baltimore, where the crowd and Ravens defense is sure to be snarling. Peyton Manning had a lousy game against the Chiefs with three picks, and the Ravens corners will be looking for the big play. Colts defense likely won't be able to contain Jamal Lewis as well as they did Larry Johnson, but I think Manning will be able to make some big strikes to Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne and don't overlook tight ends Dallas Clark and Ben Utecht. Trashtalking Ravens won't be able to keep up offensively, though never underestimate Steve McNair. Don't forget about Adam Vinatieri, the most clutch kicker in recent memory. Weather 60 and rainy at gametime, but not expected to be a factor. Colts 27-24

SAINTS -5 over Eagles: Philadelphia has had a spectacular run since Donovan McNabb went down, but was fortunate to escape with a win against the Giants last week while the Saints rested. My only concern for the New Orleans offense is they may be a bit rusty after being off two weeks and mailing it in their last game, which meant nothing. Forget their 4-4 home mark and lousy playoff history. Sean Payton can gameplan against anyone and will use exotic formations to utilize both Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister out of the backfield against suspect Philly run defense, while Drew Brees mixes it up to a bevy of receivers. Eagles just don't have as many offensive weapons to keep up. Saints 31-20

BEARS -8.5 over Seahawks: Seattle is another one-and-done here after being fortunate to escape against Dallas last week. They just never got in gear this year with assorted injuries and the post-Super Bowl hangover. They were destroyed 37-6 in Chicago back in Week 4, and though everyone in the Windy City is freaking out over Rex Grossman, I don't see the Bears pinning their hopes on him in the expected 30-degree wintry mix of weather. Bears will pound the ball and their defense will pound Matt Hasselbeck. Bears 27-6

Patriots +5 over CHARGERS: As good a matchup as you can get this early in the playoffs, and I expect the winner to be the eventual Super Bowl champion, so essentially this is the biggest game on the board. New England has played well since getting shut out in Miami a month ago and never underestimate this core group that has won so many big games the last five years. Having said that, the Chargers are 14-2 for a reason. They're a great team. My only concern is Marty Schottenheimer coaching scared, with so many colossal playoff failures haunting him. Though I expect a huge game from LaDainian Tomlinson and a steady, if not spectacular, effort from Philip Rivers in his playoff debut. Tom Brady will get hounded much more than last week by great Charger front seven, led by Shawne Merriman. With all those big names, however, expect this game to come down to the kickers. The Chargers have an Pro Bowler in Nate Kaeding and the Pats have a rookie in Steven Gostkowski. Kaeding blew the game against the Jets two years ago and makes up for it here. Weather expected to be around 60 and sunny at gametime. Chargers 23-20

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