NFL Week 1

After all the offseason nonsense involving Michael Vick, Pacman Jones et al., we can finally get to the games starting tonight.

Of course, these picks are for recreational purposes only, and not meant as the basis for any actual cash wagers.

Thursday

Saints +6 over Colts: Colts defense rose up in last year's playoffs, but other than New England (and they gave up 34 points to them), they didn't face anyone with near the firepower of New Orleans. Colts offense won't miss a beat, and should probably be even better with fleet wideout Anthony Gonzalez in the fold. Viewer alert: NBC plans to have the execrable Keith Olbermann doing some pregame work, so just tune in at game time. Colts 31-27

Sunday

JETS +6.5 over Patriots: Playoff rematch should give the Jets some motivation at home, but Patriots loaded up in the offseason, especially at WR, have big plans in what could be Belichick's final season in New England, and will come out firing from the get-go. Randy Moss was the bigger name, but keep an eye out for Wes Welker, acquired from Miami. Patriots 27-23

TEXANS -3 over Chiefs: Chiefs managed to sneak into the playoffs last year and face a team which hasn't had a whiff of them in their five years in the league. But Houston has been acquiring some nice pieces on defense and should stifle a limited KC offense. Damon Huard isn't the answer at QB, and neither if Brodie Croyle. Herman Edwards should plan on a lot of testy press conferences. Texans 19-10

BILLS +3 over Broncos: Look for the Bills to unveil rookie Marshawn Lynch early and often, which should open things up for an improved J.P. Losman. Young Denver QB Jay Cutler should be more comfortable starting out a full season. An important Week 1 matchup for two teams with rough schedules. Broncos 28-27.

BROWNS +4.5 over Steelers: I like another home dog with points in what should be a low-scoring affair. Hard to gauge what we'll see from Mike Tomlin and we wonder whether Ben Roethlisberger is back to normal. Browns had a nice draft but still have Charlie Frye warming things up before Brady Quinn gets out there. Steelers 16-13

JAGUARS -6.5 over Titans: Titans are a sexy pick this year after finishing strong in 2006. But is Vince Young ready to do it for a full season yet? Is LenDale White ready to shoulder the RB load? After aging Eric Moulds, not much at WR. Jacksonville extremely difficult at home and needs to win home divisional games. This one they will. Jaguars 24-16

RAMS -1 over Panthers: While no longer the Greatest Show on Turf, Rams have plenty of weapons and a superstar back in Steven Jackson. Carolina stumbled badly last year, but I expect them get back on track this year. Just not this week. Rams 33-20

Eagles -3 over PACKERS: Green Bay managed to finish a respectable 8-8 last year while Philly got hot behind Jeff Garcia late in the season. But Garcia bolted for Tampa and the injury-prone Donovan McNabb is back. Eagles may get some wins early, but I see a team whose window has closed. Still, they can handle the Packers. If not, they're in deep trouble. Eagles 24-13

VIKINGS -3 over Falcons: Both teams obviously have questions at QB. I don't see Tarvaris Jackson as NFL quality just yet and Joey Harrington is, well, Joey Harrington. Expect to see Adrian Peterson make an immediate impact at RB for Minnesota while the Vikings defense plays the run strong. Long season likely for Falcons. Vikings 31-13

REDSKINS -3 over Miami: These once-proud franchises used to meet in Super Bowls, but neither will see a big game for some time. The loser has an inside track on a top 5 pick in next year's draft. Redskins 20-12.

SEAHAWKS -6 over Bucs: Seahawks still expected to be a playoff team, but the Bucs, even with Jeff Garcia, are a team going nowhere fast. Chuckie isn't so endearing when he's losing, and they'll be doing a lot of that in Tampa this year. They might go off the cliff fast, with the Saints, Rams, Panthers and Colts coming up after this. Seahawks 31-7

CHARGERS -6 over Bears: Bears still an excellent team, but one that won't be as fearsome as last season. Chargers, still seething over playoff loss to Patriots, will come out angry from the first snap this year. Even Norv Turner can't screw this up. Chargers 33-14

Lions +1.5 over RAIDERS: Lions actually have some weapons, and Calvin Johnson should be a star. Raiders already planning for next year's No. 1 pick to hold out. Appalachian State might beat these guys. Lions 20-3

Sunday Night

Giants + 5.5 over Cowboys: Giants beat the snot out of 'Boys in Big D last year, then unraveled. For some odd reason, T.O. kept his mouth shut all preseason, so expect him to blow by halftime. Is Tony Romo really the answer? We'll find out. I think the Giants, aided by a lighter schedule this year, should surprise people, but will come up short here. Lots of Eli Manning to Jeremy Shockey on tap, and keep an eye out for rookie Steve Smith. As always, The Olbermann Rule is in effect here. Cowboys 27-24

Monday Night

BENGALS -2.5 over Ravens: Bengals blew playoff shot with two crushing losses to end 2006. They have a far superior offense to Baltimore, and need to start fast. Bengals 24-20

49ers -3 over Cardinals: San Francisco surprised last years and will give Seattle a run in the NFC West. As always, Arizona is a darkhorse for some, but c'mon, they're the Cardinals. Matt Leinart will have some growing pains this year. 49ers 27-23

How they'll finish in 2007.

NFC

East
Giants 10-6 Dallas 9-7 Eagles 6-10 Redskins 4-12

North
Bears 10-6 Vikings 8-8 Lions 6-10 Packers 5-11

South
Saints 11-5 Panthers 10-6 Falcons 7-9 Bucs 6-10

West
Seahawks 9-7 Rams 8-8 49ers 8-8 Cardinals 7-9

AFC

East
Patriots 10-6 Jets 9-7 Bills 8-8 Dolphins 4-12

North
Bengals 10-6 Ravens 9-7 Steelers 7-9 Browns 3-13

South
Colts 12-4 Jaguars 9-7 Titans 7-9 Texans 5-11

West
Chargers 13-3 Broncos 11-5 Chiefs 7-9 Raiders 3-13

NFC Wildcards
GIANTS over Dallas
SEAHAWKS over Panthers

Divisional
SAINTS over Giants
BEARS over Seahawks

Championship
SAINTS over Bears

AFC Wildcards
PATRIOTS over Ravens
Broncos over BENGALS

Divisional
CHARGERS over Broncos
Patriots over COLTS

Championship
CHARGERS over Patriots

Super Bowl
Chargers over Saints