Holding a steady 7-point lead over a controversial and increasingly malodorous incumbent, Republican Daniel Webster is poised to knock out U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson, a new Sunshine State News Poll shows.Well, according to the weather forecast there may be thunderstorms in the Orlando area next Tueday and according to the "experts" rain will affect Democrat turnout.
Webster, a former state senator, leads Grayson, D-Orlando, 48-41. Florida TEA Party candidate Peg Dunmire garnered 4 percent, No Party Affiliation candidate George Metcalfe got 1 percent, and 5 percent of respondents were undecided.
In a previous poll, conducted Sept. 25, Webster led Grayson 43-36, an identical 7-point margin.
"Webster has to be the favorite here. Grayson has failed to turn his negative image around, and is still viewed in a negative light by a 55-38 margin," said Jim Lee, president of Voter Survey Service, which conducted both polls. "This means Grayson has very little if any room to grow."
While Webster's negatives climbed 12 points since the earlier poll, undoubtedly spurred by Grayson's relentlessly negative advertising, the Republican maintains a relatively healthy favorable/unfavorable rating of 47/33.
Lee said nothing has changed the "fundamental equation for Grayson" in Central Florida's 8th Congressional District, where President Barack Obama gets a 52 percent job disapproval score (vs. 51 percent last month).
"Given that this district leans Democratic in raw registration numbers, Grayson's only hope is to turn out his base at a higher rate than the opponent's," Lee said.
So wave farewell the the malodorous one.