GOP House Gains Now Projected Near 50

Imagine the pain in the New York Times newsroom having to publish this.

Our model now estimates that the Republicans have a 72 percent chance of taking over the House, up from 67 percent last week. Moreover, they have nearly even odds of a achieving a net gain of 50 seats; their average gain in a typical simulation run was between 47 and 48 seats. However, the playing field remains very broad and considerably larger are possible, as are considerably smaller ones.

Republican gains this week are mostly the result of factors at the local level; the national environment is roughly stable. The expert forecasters whose judgment we incorporate into the model continue to revise their characterizations of races, and in almost all cases, the changes work toward the benefit of Republicans. Cook Political, for instance, in a break from its usual convention of not classifying seats held by incumbents as worse than toss-ups, this week decided to classify 10 seats currently held by Democratic incumbents, including the seat held by Alan Grayson in Florida’s 8th Congressional District, as leaning toward the Republicans.