Magellan Strategies BR today released the survey results of an automated survey of 2,055 likely voters in New York’s 9th Congressional District. The survey was conducted September 1st, 2011 and has a margin of error of 2.16%.The dreaded Obama effect. I'm wondering how well Junior Hoffa's declaration of war went over in this district? Turner should use that to his advantage to try and finish Weprin off.
The survey finds Republican Bob Turner leading Democrat David Weprin by 4 points (Turner 44.6%/Weprin 40.4%/Hoeppner 3.2%/undecided 11.8%). Ballot intensity benefits Turner with 35.8% of the respondents definitely voting for Turner while only 28.3% of respondents definitely voting for Weprin.
Both candidates have comparable name recognition (Turner 89% name recognition/Weprin 88% name recognition). However, Turner’s image is 37% favorable to 23.8% unfavorable, while Weprin’s image is 29.8% favorable to 34.5% unfavorable.
Turner leads Weprin despite the fact that Democrats have almost a 5 point lead on the generic ballot. However, President Obama’s job approval suffers (36% approve/52% disapprove/13% no opinion).
More from Michael Barone.