Barack Obama doesn't need to worry about winning Hawaii next year. He's more popular there than anywhere else in the country and he has huge leads over all of his potential Republican opponents. But even his native state shows the difficulties Obama's facing right now- his approval numbers are way down from earlier in the year and his margins for reelection against the various GOP candidates don't come close to what he won by in 2008.Of course he'll win Hawaii in all likelihood next year, along with a handful of other states. Unless his swift takedown of Khadafy allows the media to give him a temporary bump.
Obama's Hawaii approval rating is 56% with 36% of voters disapproving of him. That +20 spread is down 15 points from when we polled the state in March when he was at +35 (64/29.) Obama's numbers with Democrats now are basically identical to what they were earlier in the year. But where he previously had an unusual amount of crossover popularity with Republicans at 27% approval, that's now down to 15%. And he's gone from having very strong numbers with independents at 58/33 to relatively poor ones at 41/45.
For all that Obama's still more popular in Hawaii than he is anywhere else we've polled this year- California, Vermont, and Rhode Island where he's at 53% come the closest, although we haven't polled Illinois.
Ohio is always referred to as a bellwether state in national elections. His bell is tolling, if...
If Barack Obama had to stand for reelection today he would likely lose Ohio...as long as the Republicans nominate Mitt Romney.So now we ask, when will they poll Illinois? If he weren't so deeply unpopular nationwide, I suspect they'd be glad to show big numbers there, right?
Obama's approval rating in the state is only 43%, with 52% of voters disapproving of him. He's very unpopular with independents at 39/57, and even with Democrats his approval has dropped to a worrisome low of 73%. He's in particularly bad shape with white voters (37/57) and men (38/58).