Internal Poll Shocker: McCain Surging in New York

We'll see what the actual numbers are when they're released later today, but the idea that John McCain is even competitive in New York, as well as New Jersey, may stun political observers and send shock waves of panic through Democrat circles.

BOOSTED by the selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate, Republican John McCain has experienced a surge of support among women in heavily Democratic New York state - where he has closed the gap with Barack Obama, new private polls show.

The internal Republican and Democratic polls, details of which were provided to The Post, have stunned members of both parties - and produced deep worries among Democrats.

One great concern for Democrats is that the data show a continuous movement toward the McCain-Palin ticket by women, a majority of whom traditionally favor Democrats.

The movement by women toward McCain is being credited to Democratic attacks on Alaska Gov. Palin, last week's "lipstick on a pig" crack by Obama and to the continuing unhappiness by female Democrats over Obama's failure to pick Hillary Rodham Clinton as his running mate.

"If it winds up being tight in New York, that means McCain wins the election nationally," said a prominent Democrat familiar with some of the polling data.

A prominent Republican familiar with the results said, "It really is something, because we just assumed Obama would carry such a heavily Democratic state like New York with no difficulty."

The private polls have consistently shown the Obama-Biden ticket still leading but with less than 50 percent of the vote in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by over 2.3 million voters.

The polls found McCain closing the gap with Obama during the past 10 days - in the wake of Palin's sensational GOP convention speech, Obama's crack that "You can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig," and amid a swirling controversy over Palin's credentials to be vice president.

The polling data track the findings of a little-noticed Marist College poll of likely New Jersey voters late last week that found Obama barely ahead of McCain, 48 percent to 45 percent. New Jersey generally votes Democratic, though its enrollment is not as heavily Democratic as New York state's.

If Obama has to invest resources in northeast states, he's in deeper trouble than anyone can imagine.

Update: Ed Morrissey has some thoughts.

If Obama loses his grip on New York, he can’t possibly win the election. If he has to sink a large amount of money in New York, he’ll have to take it from his efforts in battleground states, and he’ll have to cut his face time in places like Michigan, Ohio, Colorado, and Minnesota. That’s a recipe for defeat, both financially and electorally.

Just a week ago, his campaign shrugged off the national polls by asserting that the state polls were what counted. As this shows, the national polls provide a pretty good barometer about what one can expect in the states. If New York becomes a toss-up, Obama can kiss his White House aspirations good-bye.

Update: Obama's 18-point lead is now down to five points.

A New York poll finds Sen. Barack Obama's lead in the state has fallen to five points, down from 18 points in June.

The Siena Research Institute poll has Obama, a Democrat, leading Sen. John McCain 46 to 41 percent among likely voters in the heavily Democratic state. He led 51-33 in the June survey.

Thanks to Gateway Pundit, Lawhawk and AJ Strata for the links.