Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Shocker: New Outlets Worried Over Exit Polls

They should be worried. They grossly overstated support for John Kerry in 2004 and based on the sycophantic, almost slavish coverage of Obama this year, they have a right to be concerned. After all but declaring the election over, how will they explain it if their guys loses?

Well, they'll probably just blame it on racism instead of accepting any measure of accountability.
Media outlets are preparing for the possibility that their Election Day surveys could be skewed because of overstated support for Barack Obama, largely because of the enthusiasm of his supporters.

While exit polling is a notoriously inexact science—early exit poll results suggested John Kerry would be elected president in 2004—the introduction of several new variables, ranging from the zeal of Obama’s supporters to his racial background to widespread early voting, is causing concerns among those who charged with conducting the surveys and the networks that will be reporting them.

“It’s in some ways the flip side of non-cooperation,” said one pollster involved in preparations, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, “It’s over-cooperation by certain people.”

Unlike a traditional poll that asks voters who they intend to support, exit polls are taken outside the polling place immediately after voters have cast their ballots. The interviewing begins when the polls open in the morning and lasts throughout the day until shortly before the polls close.

The exit polls are conducted by the National Election Pool (NEP), a consortium of ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News and NBC News formed in 2003.

In theory, exit polls should match election results. But for all the care that goes into conducting accurate exit polls, errant results aren’t completely uncommon. Respected polling analyst Mark Blumenthal found that during the Democratic primaries this year, preliminary exit polls overestimated Obama's strength in 18 of 20 states, by an average error of 7 percentage points, based on leaked early results.

The reason? Obama’s supporters were younger, better educated and often more enthusiastic than Hillary Clinton's, meaning they were more likely to participate in exit polls.
In an effort to depress Bush voters, by mid-afternoon on the east coast on election day 2004 it was declared Kerry would win by a landslide. They didn't suggest Kerry would win. They said it was going to be a blowout. Expect the exact same exit polls this year.

The media wants Obama to win. That much is painfully obvious. They will do anything to can to manipulate the vote.

Ignore them.

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