Quinnipiac: Obama Tied With Romney, Leads Perry by Three

Fourteen months out from the 2012 elections and the president is in deep trouble. Meanwhile there's some good news for both Rick Perry and Mitt Romney in a new Quinnipiac national poll. Perry has surged to the head of the GOP pack but Romney currently fares better when matched against Obama.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry has zoomed to the front of the line of GOP presidential candidates with a 24 - 18 percent lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney among Republican voters, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. Romney and President Barack Obama are in a dead heat while Perry trails the president by 3 points in 2012 matchups.

Republicans and Democrats are tied 38 - 38 percent when the independent Quinnipiac University survey asks American voters who they would vote for in the 2012 races for U.S. Congress - the so-called "generic ballot."

The percentage of all registered voters who say President Obama deserves a second term in the Oval Office has fallen to a negative 42 - 51 percent, matching a 41 - 50 percent all-time low reading on whether he deserves another four years in office from a March 30 survey.

"Gov. Rick Perry has sprinted out of the gate as a candidate for the GOP nomination," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Being the new kid on the block has benefitted Perry. But with prominence comes scrutiny and both his Republican competitors and the Democrats are doing their best to convince voters he's not Mr. Wonderful. The next few months will be a race between Perry and his Republican and Democratic opponents to define him for the vast majority of the American people."

Among Republicans and independent voters leaning Republican, Perry gets 24 percent to Romney's 18 percent, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's 11 percent, Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann's 10 percent, Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul's 9 percent and businessman Herman Cain's 5 percent. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich gets 3 percent, while former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, former Sen. Rick Santorum and Michigan U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter get 1 percent each.

If Palin doesn't run, Perry leads Romney 26 - 20 percent with Bachmann at 12 percent.

Let's be blunt: Things are bleak for this failed president.

"The president is now dead even with one top Republican and just inches ahead of the other. He needs to improve his standing among men, whites and independents to ensure his re- election," said Brown.

He'll be going 0-for-3 with those groups.

Toomey Up 50-43 in PA Senate Race

Doesn't look like the deeply unpopular Barack Obama's visit to Pennsylvania has done any good for Joe Sestak, and GOP candidate Pat Toomey had moved out to a 50-43 lead according to a Quinnipiac poll released this morning.

Republican Pat Toomey has hit the magic 50 percent mark as he leads Democratic U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak 50 - 43 percent in the race for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters released today.

Pennsylvania likely voters disapprove 56 - 40 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, the independent Quinnipiac University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds. This first general election survey of Pennsylvania likely voters in this election cycle cannot be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.

By a 52 - 43 percent margin, voters want a U.S. Senator who opposes rather than supports the president's policies and say 46 - 35 percent they want Republicans, rather than Democrats, to control the U.S. Senate after the November ballots are counted.

Toomey is winning 86 - 9 percent among Republicans and losing 87 - 7 percent among Democrats. He holds a commanding 54 - 36 percent lead among independent voters, which provides his current lead overall.

There is a very large gender gap in the Senate race, with Toomey ahead among male likely voters 58 - 37 percent and trailing among women likely voters 51 - 40 percent. The gender gap on the president's job performance is even wider with women approving 50 - 43 percent, while men disapprove by more than two-to-one, 66 - 31 percent.

No wonder Obama is reduced to sending his wife out to campaign.

Christie Clobbering Corzine in Latest Poll

This is certainly some good poll news for the bedraggled Republicans. If you have a good chance to win the statehouse in New Jersey then all hope is not lost.

New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine trails Chris Christie, the front-runner for the Republican nomination, by nine percentage points, up from six points in February, according to poll released today.

The Quinnipiac University poll has little good news for the Democratic incumbent. Half of those polled disapproved of the job Corzine's doing even before he unveiled a bad news budget Tuesday.

Pollster Clay Richards said Christie could gain momentum as more voters find out who he is. Only 44 percent said they're aware he is a former federal prosecutor with a string of political corruption convictions.

Never underestimate Corzine's ability to spend millions to keep his seat, however. Between his Senate and gubernatorial campaigns he's spent well in excess of $100 million. Maybe this time around his money is dwindling thanks to the Obama economy plus the fact he's just incompetent and people can't stand him. These numbers look bleak.

Christopher Christie, the Republican challenger in this year's New Jersey Governor's race, leads Democratic incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine 46 - 37 percent, even though 61 percent of voters don't know enough about the former U.S. Attorney to form an opinion of him, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 44 - 38 percent Christie lead in a February 4 poll by the independent Quinnipiac University.

In this latest survey, Democrats support Corzine 69 - 14 percent while Christie leads 87 - 4 percent among Republicans and 49 - 31 percent among independent voters. Men back the Republican 51 - 34 percent and women back him 41 - 39 percent.

Corzine leads former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan 41 - 37 percent, even though 77 percent of New Jersey voters haven't heard enough about Lonegan to form an opinion.

Only 44 percent of voters were aware that Christie was a federal prosecutor who successfully forced more than 100 New Jersey politicians to leave office. But 42 percent of voters say that experience makes them more likely to vote for Christie.

Voters say 48 - 36 percent that his background as a prosecutor gives Christie the experience to be Governor. Voters say 49 - 37 percent it is better to have a new face such as Christie than a business man such as Corzine leading the state during the economic crisis.

"There are no good numbers for Gov. Jon Corzine in this poll, and since it was taken before his Draconian budget was released, his numbers could be even worse today," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Independents make up a sizable chunk of Jersey voters and the fact Corzine trails by 18% among them is huge. That he's trailing among women, albeit a statistical tie, is rather ominous.

Cuomo Crushing Clueless Paterson

Maybe those secret pay raises weren't such a good idea. Well, it's much more than that, as the bumbling New York Governor David Paterson is finding out. The accidental governor, in office less than a year, is facing a possible wipeout next year if he winds up being challenged in the Democratic primary by Attorney General Andrew 'Evil Eyes' Cuomo.

Gov. Paterson was on the ropes yesterday after a stunning new poll showed Attorney General Andrew Cuomo clobbering him by 32 points in a primary matchup.

Cuomo - who sources say is eyeing a run for governor - defeats fellow Democrat Paterson by 55-23 percent, the Quinnipiac University survey found.

Those numbers were widely viewed as surprisingly low for the governor, whose popularity has nose-dived in the wake of the calamity surrounding his pick for US Senate to replace Hillary Rodham Clinton - and the drubbing onetime front-runner Caroline Kennedy took from people close to Paterson after she withdrew from consideration.

And his administration and campaign staff have been derided as rudderless - while he has little but bad budget news to deliver in coming months.

Cuomo has been mum on his intentions and has said he is focussed on his re-election for attorney general.

"The appropriate thing for Andrew Cuomo to be doing is to run for re-election," said Democratic consultant Hank Sheinkopf, who added that Paterson's poll numbers suggest down-ballot Democratic seats - such as the state Senate majority, the state comptroller and new members of Congress - could be at risk.

"The Democrats very well at this point may ask the governor not to run," Sheinkopf said. "The governor's got to save himself."

As I surmised the other day, one wonders whether he'll even bother running again.

The GOP probably shouldn't see any silver lining here as Cuomo also defeats Rudy Giulianin in a potential matchup.

Against potential GOP challenger Rudy Giuliani, Paterson - who governs a state with a strong majority of Democrat-registered voters - runs even at 43 percent, the survey shows.

But Cuomo thumps Giuliani by 51-37 percent, the poll shows.

Naturally, Paterson lashed out at the media, as if they made him hand out secret pay hikes.

At a press conference yesterday, Paterson said he still plans to run in 2010, and blamed the media for the poor poll results.

"I will run," he said. "I'm not focused on the 2010 campaign and I should be focused on the budget."

He insisted that the "kind of treatment" he's getting in the press is contributing to his low rating, adding, "20 percent of voters in the hypothetical primary race were undecided."

It never fails to amaze how Democrats, who largely get favorable press compared to Republicans, always whine about media treatment. They should take a cue from the George W. Bushes of the world and take it like a man.

It's not just the media hammering Paterson.

GOV. Paterson was being described as a dead man walking yesterday by even some of his closest advisers, who said the devastatingly low ratings in a new Quinnipiac University poll - reflecting a broad sense of an administration in meltdown - are too great to overcome.

"It looks like it'll be Gov. Cuomo," sighed a longtime Paterson loyalist

Words like "unprecedented" and "unbelievable" were being used to describe Paterson's collapse in popularity - but many on the inside said they weren't all that surprised.

Those who've known Paterson well for decades say he's always been unfocused, self-centered, often lazy - and, at times, clownish and immature. More often than not, these traits have resulted in his having a disorganized and dysfunctional staff as a senator, Senate minority leader and now as governor.

Paterson, who spent 20 years as a part-time legislator, was also long known for his delight in extra-office activities including late-night partying, the excesses of which account for the bouts of dizziness and exhaustion that have dogged him for so long.

"He's a lifestyle politician: He loves the trappings, the planes, the Mansion, the bodyguards, the travel, the national TV time - not the work," said a Democratic activist who has known him well.

As I said the other day, he sounds like a perfect fit for the Obama administration.

Makes you wonder if he even plans on running again next year by being so reckless. Perhaps he just intends to live large and reward his own people before moving on, probably to a position in the Obama administration.