Wednesday, October 27, 2010

CBS/NYT Poll Spells Almost Certain Doom for Democrats

Forget all that nonsense Democrats have been been peddling about some surge in interest for their candidates in the midterms. If this CBS/New York Times poll is any indication they're about to be swept away in a historic tsunami.
Critical parts of the coalition that delivered President Obama to the White House in 2008 and gave Democrats control of Congress in 2006 are switching their allegiance to the Republicans in the final phase of the midterm Congressional elections, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

Republicans have wiped out the advantage held by Democrats in recent election cycles among women, Catholics, less affluent Americans and independents; all of those groups broke for Mr. Obama in 2008 and for congressional Democrats when they grabbed both chambers from the Republicans four years ago, according to exit polls.

The poll found that a greater proportion of women would choose Republicans over Democrats in House races than at any time since exit polls began tracking the breakdown in 1982.
So Obama and the Democrats have lost women, Catholics, the less affluent and independents. What's he got left other than kook fringe bloggers?
The poll does not measure the strength of individual candidates in specific districts, where indeterminate factors like voter turnout and even weather can affect Election Day results. And, taken nationally Thursday through Tuesday with interviews of 1,173 adults, the poll did not ask about United States Senate contests, as 14 states do not have Senate races this year (The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points).

But it does offer a clear indication of party strength at the end of what has been a particularly intense and hard-fought mid-term election season with more bad news than good for Mr. Obama and his party.

Overall, 46 percent of likely voters said they would vote for Republicans and 40 percent said they would support Democrats.

A higher percentage of Americans continue to have a more favorable opinion of the Democratic Party than of the Republican Party, with 46 percent favoring Democrats and 41 favoring Republicans. But the Republicans’ current favorability rating in The New York Times/CBS poll reflects its highest level since September, 2006.

However, disapproval of Congress remains near its highest level in the history of The Times/CBS poll – 76 percent of respondents disapproved, 14 percent approved and 10 percent expressed no opinion.
Say farewell, Queen Pelosi.

The poll results are here. Worth noting, and the Democrats better take notice or they'll get wiped out in 2012 as well, is by 55-36% people want smaller government. A scant 11% think the economy is better since Obama took office, 53% don't think Obama has a plan to create jobs.

Naturally, considering this is a media poll, it's stacked against Republicans, which leads us to believe things may be even worse next Tuesday than anyone expects. Only 28% of those polled identify themselves as Republicans, with 37% Democrats and 31% independents. So you have 68% not identifying themselves as Republican yet they're heavily favored on Tuesday. Self-identified liberals and moderates make up 56% of those polled, with 38% conservative; again, Democrats should be very worried based on the makeup of those polled.

Update: According to Gallup it looks even worse.
Gallup's recent tracking of the generic ballot for Congress has shown the Republicans with substantial leads over the Democrats among likely voters, in part because the underlying registered voter population leans Republican in its vote choice. Compared with previous elections, that tilt is an extraordinary positioning for the Republicans, who typically do no better than tie the Democrats among registered voters. The GOP's position is further enhanced by the generally strong proclivity of Republicans to turn out to vote, which appears to be even greater than usual this year.
Gallup keeps pointing toward a 40% turnout compared with presidential elections. I suspect that number will be much greater.

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