Monday, November 06, 2006

Election Prediction: Not a Stretch

As we close in on election day, I'm going to predict a net loss of one Senate seat for the GOP: Mike DeWine in Ohio and Conrad Burns in Montana losing and Michael Steele picking up a Democrat open seat. Robert Novak's latest projection is two seats, but I'm getting a strong hunch about Rick Santorum's massive GOTV efforts and his rapidly closing numbers, the latest at 4% down. Bob Casey is such a lightweight and I expect a strong rural turnout.

Perhaps I'm spitting in the wind, but it's just my gut feeling.

Michael Steele has run a tremendous campaign and will be a star in the GOP, even if the media condescendingly ignores or belittles him.

In the House, I'm sticking with a -12 loss for the GOP. I've been stuck on that number for awhile, and just don't see the doom others are forecasting. On FNC tonight, the panel (Barnes, Kondracke and Kristol), all had the GOP losing at least 20. I'm not seeing it.

So in the end, I figure the GOP retains both houses, and a massive freakout ensues come Wednesday from the usual suspects.

Hopefully, Nancy will be looking down come Wednesday.

UPDATE 11/7 8:38 pm ET

Oh well, Santorum went down quickly, so I was spitting in the wind. FNC is projecting Menendez to win in NJ as of 8:35 pm ET. Menendez is so corrupt (yes, a corrupt Democrat in NJ), he probably won't last the six years.

10 comments:

Geepers said...

Way to go JammieWearingFool!

May your hit counter grow.

Unknown said...

Go JWF! We need more voices of reason in the blogosphere~ but make sure it doesn't take from your LGF time! We'll have to drag you back by your ears :D

~m

Anonymous said...

Hey Jammie, looks good.

With your high quality of work, I'm sure this will be a success.

3 wood

Anonymous said...

Hey Jammie,

Fellow LGF'er, enjoy your posts there. Good job on your blogroll, to put LGF first. Some don't do that; I don't know why.

Also: You are one of the few to make a positive prediction re: election results. Well done and I agree.

wild olive

JammieWearingFool said...

wild olive,

I put LGF first because it's my favorite site and without it, I wouldn't have had the inspiration to do this. Charles was so kind as to link me, and some fellow LGFers have also done that, which is greatly appreciated. I thought about alphabetizing the links, but there's not necessarily any preferred order.

Thge list will continune to grow. If others want to be linked, please email me.

Thanks for commenting.

Anonymous said...

hello -- test

Aussiemagpie said...

Goodonya

I hope your positive prediction comes about

That Nancy Pelosi is a scary woman and here in Oz she would not be in a mainstream party - she'd be relegated to the Greens or one of the the myriad Socialist parties that never ever even cause a blip on voters choices

Good to see your blog is so well supported too

JammieWearingFool said...

Hello aussiemagpie,

Nice to see my friends from Oz. I've gone intercontinental!

Hope you enjoy my posts and thanks so much for stopping by.

realwest said...

NIce Blog JWF! I posted this earlier and tried to post it a second time, let's hope the third times the charm - My gut tells me GOP loses 2 Senate seats and about 20 House seats.

Joey_jojo_jr said...

While I don't have the same insight into how many races are going that JWF does, I also think the GOP isn't going to lose as many races as the LWM (left wing media) would have you believe. what else would you expect them to say???