Friday, January 22, 2010

Oh My: Huckabee Leads Obama in 2012 Poll

This one comes from PPP and let's give them some credit where due: They nailed the Scott Brown victory over Martha Coakley. As a result of that race Tuesday the air of invincibility surrounding Barack Obama has been shattered, perhaps irrevocably.
For the first time in one of our monthly polls looking ahead to the 2012 Presidential election Barack Obama trails one of his hypothetical opponents, albeit by the smallest of margins.

Mike Huckabee has a 45-44 advantage over Obama, aided largely by a 44-38 lead with independents. There continues to be no evidence of any negative fallout for Huckabee after murders of police officers committed by an ex-Arkansas inmate whose sentence he had commuted. His 35/29 favorability breakdown is actually slightly better than it was in November before that incident.

Mitt Romney does the next best, trailing Obama 44-42. His favorability is 36/32, and he's the most popular Republican among independents (41/32). Romney actually matches Huckabee with GOP voters this month and gets over 50%, ending a trend in his numbers that had seemed to spell difficulty for snagging a Republican nomination.

Sarah Palin trails Obama 49-41 largely because she loses 14% of the Republican vote to him, making her the only one of the GOP candidates we tested who Obama could get double digit crossover support against. At the same time Palin continues to be the most well liked potential GOP candidate within her party- at 71% favorability. Her problem appears to be that the Republicans who don't care for her will go so far as to vote for Obama instead of her.
Those 14% of Republicans who would vote for Obama over Palin no doubt are the pundits who slobber of his creased pants and others who think Palin is just so beneath them.

Whatever the case, independents have abandoned Obama in droves. He's shown no sign of even approaching the center and at the going rate is doomed to one term before he returns to his real calling as a community organizer. Just think: Less than a year from now we'll already have entered 2012 election cycle. It can't come soon enough.

No comments: