Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Gay Marriage Proponents Finally Find a Poll to Their Liking

If at first you don't succeed, just keep polling. Eventually you'll get your way. And when you do, it's time to celebrate. Who cares if the polling sample is hugely slanted left?

Last week it was this news:

Times Poll: Californians narrowly reject gay marriage

Of course, as Patterico points out by narrowly they mean 19 points. That headline, by the way, is the fourth incarnation.

Now today, something called the Field Poll comes out with--surprise!--a poll completely contradicting the LA Times, and we have a swing of 28 points.

Naturally, trumpets are blaring.

CALIFORNIA MAJORITY BACKS GAY MARRIAGE: Field Poll director calls results a milestone
In a dramatic reversal of decades of public opinion, California voters agree by a slim majority that same-sex couples should be allowed to marry, according to a Field Poll released today.

By 51-42 percent, registered voters said they believed same-sex marriage should be legal in California. Only 28 percent favored gay marriage in 1977, when the Field Poll first asked that question, said Mark DiCamillo, the poll's director.
Decades of public opinion? How about public opinion from last Friday?
A statewide Los Angeles Times/KTLA Poll released last week showed different results: 54 percent of registered voters said they would support the initiative that would change the state Constitution to ban same-sex marriage.

"When we get results that we think are surprising, we double- and triple-check our numbers, and that's what we did here," said DiCamillo. "Everything in this poll is consistent internally."

It's not unusual for two polls to have conflicting numbers, said Steve Kinney, a veteran GOP pollster.

"It's all in the methodology, who you actually talked to and whether they accurately represented that state as a whole," he said. "But even if you have confidence in your numbers, you're always scared if you come up with something totally different. Are you wrong, or is the other guy?"
In the end, the obvious discrepancy and dubious nature of polling won't matter a bit. Even if the majority do not want gay marriage, it'll be shoved down their throats anyway.

Naturally, at the home office for leftwing hate, they're typically understated and reach out to their opponents.

Californians STRONGLY In Favor of Gay Marriage
The right-wing haters who are likely to qualify their iniative [sic] may have overplayed their hands. Not only are they on the wrong side of history, on the wrong side of Arnold, but they are hoping for a yes vote in a state that loves to vote no on initiatives.
Of course, if you refer to the poll, you see under ideology a full 70 percent of those sampled consider themselves middle of the road (53-35%), moderately liberal (72-23) or strongly liberal (85-11))and they overwhelming favor gay marriage. If you look at the 30% considered moderately conservative (61-32) or strongly conservative (85-11).

When broken down by party, the sample is 43% Democrat, 33% Republican, 24% non-partisan. In other words, Republicans are outnumbered 67-33%. Los Angeles County and the San Francisco Bay Area comprise 46% of those polled.

In other words, this poll doesn't even come close to a fair representation of the population. Granted, California is a blue state, but you cannot possibly claim a poll where left outnumbers right 70-30% as valid.

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