Sunday, January 10, 2010

Mass Confusion: Brown Up a Point in One Poll, Coakley Up 15 in Another

I was a bit skeptical over the buzz surrounding the PPP poll last night that has Scott Brown up a point over Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts special election to fill Ted Kennedy's seat.

For good reason.
A Public Policy Polling survey released Saturday night showed a potential upset in the making, with Republican state Sen. Scott Brown (R) leading Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) in the Massachusetts Senator special election.

Now, a survey from the University of New Hampshire in Sunday's Boston Globe (554 LVs, 1/2-6, MoE +/- 4.2%) shows a much safer result for Democrats, with Coakley ahead by double digits.

Special Election Matchup (No Leaners)
Coakley 50
Brown 35
Und 9
OK, so this is a Boston Globe poll and who's to say they're more trustworthy than PPP? Well, PPP was way off on the NY-23 race most recently, so consider their recent track record.

I suspect the reality lies somewhere in between, with Coakley probably up by single digits and Brown gaining. Is there enough time for him to make up a single-digit gap? Perhaps. But 15 points? Highly doubtful when you consider this is the bluest of blue states and Democrats will probably be spooked enough to show up come election day. A scare for Democrats, no doubt, and an ominous sign for things nationally come November.

Instapundit links. Thanks!

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